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AI & tech — 27

Will the highest Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 170.0 for a model released on or before 2026-12-06?44% · deadline 2026-12-06 Will the highest Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) accuracy score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 58.5 % for a model released on or before 2026-12-06?39% · deadline 2026-12-06 Will the highest SciCode score score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 70.5 % for a model released on or before 2026-12-13?23% · deadline 2026-12-13 Will the highest SimpleQA Verified score score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 83.0 % for a model released on or before 2026-12-13?17% · deadline 2026-12-13 Will the highest Chess Puzzles score score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 82.0 % for a model released on or before 2026-12-13?21% · deadline 2026-12-13 Will Nvidia report quarterly revenue above $112 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2027?49% · deadline 2026-12-15 Will Tesla publicly unveil the Optimus V3 robot before 31 December 2026?13% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will the new Gemini-powered Siri be available in a stable public release of iOS 27 before 31 December 2026?95% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will TSMC report revenue above $50 billion for the fourth quarter of 2026?63% · deadline 2027-01-31 Will Nvidia's market capitalisation reach $6 trillion at any close before 31 March 2027?82% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Intel publicly announce a named external customer committed to its 14A process before 31 March 2027?38% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Huawei commercially launch the Ascend 950DT accelerator before 31 March 2027?68% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will EuroHPC announce the selection of at least one AI Gigafactory site before 31 March 2027?63% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Google release a model whose name begins with "Gemini 4" before 31 March 2027?99% · deadline 2027-03-31 · RESOLVED : OUI Will xAI release Grok 5 before 31 March 2027?52% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will DeepSeek release a model named R2 or V5 before 31 March 2027?68% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will an open-weights model be in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard on 31 March 2027?22% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will the US government grant an export licence to China for an Nvidia chip of the Blackwell architecture or later before 30 June 2027?14% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will the US Section 232 tariff on semiconductors be modified before 30 June 2027?63% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will the European Commission open formal proceedings under the AI Act against a general-purpose AI model provider before 30 June 2027?46% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will Meta release the weights of a model in the Muse family before 30 June 2027?99% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will Mistral AI release a flagship open-weights model of a generation above Mistral 3 before 30 June 2027?78% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will Rapidus begin 2 nm mass production before 31 December 2027?25% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will a UK government bill dedicated to AI regulation be introduced in Parliament before 31 December 2027?55% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will Anthropic complete its initial public offering before 31 December 2027?86% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will Moonshot AI be listed on a stock exchange before 31 December 2027?76% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will OpenAI put its first consumer device on sale before 31 December 2027?56% · deadline 2027-12-31

Medicine — 78

Will the FDA approve bepirovirsen for chronic hepatitis B?68% · deadline 2026-10-26 Will Biomea Fusion announce topline results from the GLP-131 trial of BMF-650 in obesity in otherwise healthy volunteers by October 31, 2026?97% · deadline 2026-10-31 Will the FDA approve Inovio Pharmaceuticals's INO-3107 for Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis by November 13, 2026?81% · deadline 2026-11-13 Will the FDA approve Agios's mitapivat for sickle cell disease by November 15, 2026?86% · deadline 2026-11-15 Will the FDA approve neladalkib (NVL-655) for ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer?55% · deadline 2026-11-27 Will the FDA approve ivonescimab in combination with chemotherapy in EGFR-mutated NSCLC after failure of a tyrosine kinase inhibitor?49% · deadline 2026-11-30 Will the FDA approve deramiocel in Duchenne muscular dystrophy before 30 November 2026?58% · deadline 2026-11-30 Will the FDA approve imsidolimab for generalized pustular psoriasis?44% · deadline 2026-12-12 Will the FDA grant accelerated approval to povetacicept in IgA nephropathy before 15 December 2026?65% · deadline 2026-12-15 Will the FDA approve BBP-418 in limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2I/R9 before 15 December 2026?81% · deadline 2026-12-15 Will the FDA approve relacorilant for hypercortisolism (Cushing's syndrome)?45% · deadline 2026-12-17 Will the FDA approve lorundrostat for hypertension?63% · deadline 2026-12-22 Will NCT06693895 (GlaxoSmithKline) still show a study completion date of 23 November 2026 or earlier when checked on 23 December 2026?30% · deadline 2026-12-23 Will NCT03815643 (EMD Serono Research & Development Institute, Inc.) still show a study completion date of 24 November 2026 or earlier when checked on 24 December 2026?83% · deadline 2026-12-24 Will NCT04906395 (Tolmar Inc.) still show a study completion date of 30 November 2026 or earlier when checked on 30 December 2026?83% · deadline 2026-12-30 Will NCT07216079 (Sanofi) still show a study completion date of 30 November 2026 or earlier when checked on 30 December 2026?81% · deadline 2026-12-30 Will the CHMP issue a positive opinion on narsoplimab following re-examination before 31 December 2026?6% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will the FDA approve CagriSema for weight management before 31 December 2026?38% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will EyePoint announce topline results from the LUCIA trial of DURAVYU in wet age-related macular degeneration by December 31, 2026?57% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will ArriVent BioPharma announce topline results from the FURVENT trial of firmonertinib in first-line EGFR exon 20 insertion mutant NSCLC by December 31, 2026?46% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will Biohaven announce topline results from the RISE3 trial of opakalim in focal epilepsy by December 31, 2026?68% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will Karyopharm Therapeutics announce topline results from the XPORT-MM-031 trial of selinexor in previously treated multiple myeloma by December 31, 2026?58% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will the FDA approve relutrigine in SCN2A/SCN8A developmental and epileptic encephalopathies before 15 January 2027?65% · deadline 2027-01-15 Will NCT05987956 (Medicine Invention Design, Inc) still show a study completion date of 28 December 2026 or earlier when checked on 27 January 2027?80% · deadline 2027-01-27 Will NCT05438407 (Pharming Technologies B.V.) still show a study completion date of 30 December 2026 or earlier when checked on 29 January 2027?74% · deadline 2027-01-29 Will Vaxcyte announce that the VAX-31 phase 3 OPUS-1 trial met its non-inferiority criteria before 31 January 2027?66% · deadline 2027-01-31 · RESOLVED : OUI Will NCT07000136 (AstraZeneca) still show a study completion date of 4 January 2027 or earlier when checked on 3 February 2027?68% · deadline 2027-02-03 Will the FDA grant accelerated approval to z-rostudirsen in exon 51 skip-amenable DMD before 15 February 2027?73% · deadline 2027-02-15 Will NCT06641076 (MoonLake Immunotherapeutics AG) still show a study completion date of 4 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 6 March 2027?82% · deadline 2027-03-06 Will NCT07102628 (Novartis Pharmaceuticals) still show a study completion date of 11 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 13 March 2027?54% · deadline 2027-03-13 Will the FDA approve Cullinan Therapeutics's zipalertinib for Locally advanced or metastatic EGFR exon 20 insertion NSCLC after platinum chemotherapy by March 13, 2027?80% · deadline 2027-03-13 Will NCT06388200 (Ocugen) still show a study completion date of 12 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 14 March 2027?74% · deadline 2027-03-14 Will the FDA approve Apnimed's AD109 (Oxnimbi) for treatment of adults with obstructive sleep apnea by March 14, 2027?87% · deadline 2027-03-14 Will NCT04529772 (Acerta Pharma BV) still show a study completion date of 22 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 24 March 2027?59% · deadline 2027-03-24 Will the FDA approve Aquestive Therapeutics's dibutepinephrine (Anaphylm) for treatment of Type I allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis by March 30, 2027?81% · deadline 2027-03-30 Will the FDA approve lonvoguran ziclumeran in hereditary angioedema before 31 March 2027?75% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Cartesian Therapeutics announce topline results from the AURORA trial of Descartes-08 in generalized Myasthenia Gravis by March 31, 2027?68% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will ProMIS Neurosciences announce topline results from the PRECISE-AD trial of PMN310 in early Alzheimer’s disease by March 31, 2027?78% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will the FDA approve Inhibrx Biosciences's ozekibart for conventional chondrosarcoma by April 28, 2027?80% · deadline 2027-04-28 Will NCT06641466 (Pfizer) still show a study completion date of 30 March 2027 or earlier when checked on 29 April 2027?63% · deadline 2027-04-29 Will the FDA approve tinlarebant in Stargardt disease type 1 before 30 April 2027?58% · deadline 2027-04-30 Will the FDA approve the paediatric extension of cefiderocol before 30 April 2027?52% · deadline 2027-04-30 Will NCT03574571 (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center) still show a study completion date of 1 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 1 May 2027?75% · deadline 2027-05-01 Will NCT01953588 (Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology) still show a study completion date of 1 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 1 May 2027?67% · deadline 2027-05-01 Will NCT05850689 (Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc.) still show a study completion date of 5 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 5 May 2027?78% · deadline 2027-05-05 Will the FDA approve Pharvaris's deucrictibant for on-demand treatment of hereditary angioedema attacks by May 7, 2027?89% · deadline 2027-05-07 Will NCT06260163 (Janssen Research & Development, LLC) still show a study completion date of 28 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 28 May 2027?80% · deadline 2027-05-28 Will NCT06506955 (Taiho Oncology, Inc.) still show a study completion date of 30 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 May 2027?66% · deadline 2027-05-30 Will NCT06733129 (Nantes University Hospital) still show a study completion date of 30 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 May 2027?43% · deadline 2027-05-30 Will NCT06360133 (VivaVision Biotech, Inc) still show a study completion date of 30 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 May 2027?52% · deadline 2027-05-30 Will the FDA approve varegacestat in adult desmoid tumours before 31 May 2027?70% · deadline 2027-05-31 Will the FDA approve AXS-12 in cataplexy associated with narcolepsy before 31 May 2027?36% · deadline 2027-05-31 Will NCT07094087 (CSL Behring) still show a study completion date of 5 May 2027 or earlier when checked on 4 June 2027?39% · deadline 2027-06-04 Will the FDA approve Zenas BioPharma's obexelimab for treatment of Immunoglobulin G4-Related Disease by June 10, 2027?86% · deadline 2027-06-10 Will the FDA approve encaleret in autosomal dominant hypocalcemia type 1 before 15 June 2027?61% · deadline 2027-06-15 Will NCT06736041 (Sanofi Pasteur, a Sanofi Company) still show a study completion date of 17 May 2027 or earlier when checked on 16 June 2027?65% · deadline 2027-06-16 Will the CHMP issue an opinion on apitegromab in spinal muscular atrophy before 30 June 2027?62% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will NCT05531656 (Cognition Therapeutics) still show a study completion date of 31 May 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 June 2027?72% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will NCT06334133 (vTv Therapeutics) still show a study completion date of 31 May 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 June 2027?81% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will NCT03319667 (Sanofi) still show a study completion date of 30 June 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 July 2027?60% · deadline 2027-07-30 Will NCT05667142 (Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.) still show a study completion date of 30 June 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 July 2027?36% · deadline 2027-07-30 Will the FDA approve bezuclastinib in advanced systemic mastocytosis before 31 July 2027?45% · deadline 2027-07-31 Will Vaxcyte publish topline results from the phase 3 OPUS-2 trial before 31 July 2027?87% · deadline 2027-07-31 Will NCT05063162 (UCB Biopharma SRL) still show a study completion date of 1 July 2027 or earlier when checked on 31 July 2027?78% · deadline 2027-07-31 Will NCT06427395 (Zydus Therapeutics Inc.) still show a study completion date of 18 July 2027 or earlier when checked on 17 August 2027?53% · deadline 2027-08-17 Will NCT06987695 (Amgen) still show a study completion date of 21 July 2027 or earlier when checked on 20 August 2027?58% · deadline 2027-08-20 Will the FDA accept the retatrutide NDA filing in obesity before 30 September 2027?85% · deadline 2027-09-30 Will NCT06489028 (RHEACELL GmbH & Co. KG) still show a study completion date of 30 September 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 October 2027?52% · deadline 2027-10-30 Will a regulator accept a registration filing for intismeran autogene combined with pembrolizumab in resected melanoma before 31 December 2027?84% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will NCT06804811 (Incyte Corporation) still show a study completion date of 1 December 2027 or earlier when checked on 31 December 2027?36% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will NCT05696613 (Cerium Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) still show a study completion date of 31 December 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 January 2028?65% · deadline 2028-01-30 Will NCT06717711 (Regina Elena Cancer Institute) still show a study completion date of 28 February 2028 or earlier when checked on 29 March 2028?39% · deadline 2028-03-29 Will NCT04031677 (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer - EORTC) still show a study completion date of 21 April 2028 or earlier when checked on 21 May 2028?47% · deadline 2028-05-21 Will NCT04057898 (MediciNova) still show a study completion date of 30 April 2028 or earlier when checked on 30 May 2028?58% · deadline 2028-05-30 Will NCT06998524 (Hoffmann-La Roche) still show a study completion date of 30 April 2029 or earlier when checked on 30 May 2029?34% · deadline 2029-05-30 Will NCT04462770 (Epygenix) still show a study completion date of 31 May 2029 or earlier when checked on 30 June 2029?48% · deadline 2029-06-30 Will NCT06498414 (McGill University Health Centre/Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre) still show a study completion date of 1 June 2029 or earlier when checked on 1 July 2029?40% · deadline 2029-07-01 Will NCT05445778 (AbbVie) still show a study completion date of 31 May 2032 or earlier when checked on 30 June 2032?56% · deadline 2032-06-30

Quantum — 13

Will IBM bring a "Kookaburra" processor into service before 31 December 2026?77% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will Rigetti report a median two-qubit gate fidelity of at least 99.5% on its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system before 31 December 2026?39% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will anyone announce a demonstration of at least 120 simultaneously encoded logical qubits before 31 March 2027?73% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will NIST publish the initial draft of FIPS 206 (FN-DSA / Falcon) before 31 March 2027?55% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will IonQ publicly demonstrate at least 12 logical qubits before 31 March 2027?38% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Infleqtion announce a system with at least 30 logical qubits before 31 March 2027?94% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will NIST publish a draft FIPS standard covering HQC before 30 June 2027?77% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will Quantinuum deliver its "Sol" system with at least 192 physical qubits before 31 December 2027?71% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will Google Quantum AI publish a peer-reviewed paper claiming to have crossed Milestone 3 before 31 December 2027?48% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will a Pasqal system with at least 1,000 physical qubits be accessible to external users before 31 December 2027?18% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will a Chinese team publish below-threshold surface-code error correction at code distance 9 or more before 31 December 2027?35% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will PsiQuantum publish a peer-reviewed demonstration of a corrected logical qubit on photonic hardware before 31 December 2027?14% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will Microsoft publish a peer-reviewed paper demonstrating a logical operation between at least two topological qubits before 31 December 2027?8% · deadline 2027-12-31

Deep tech — 7

Will the SPARC tokamak reach first plasma before 31 December 2026?16% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will SpaceX catch a Starship upper stage with the launch tower arms before 31 December 2026?41% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will a Starship vehicle lift off from Launch Complex 39A in Florida before 31 December 2026?28% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket lift off on its first orbital launch attempt before 31 December 2026?6% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will SpaceX carry out an in-orbit propellant transfer between two Starships before 31 March 2027?45% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Helion announce that it has produced electricity from fusion before 30 June 2027?33% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will SPARC demonstrate a fusion gain Q above 1 before 31 December 2027?13% · deadline 2027-12-31

Finance — 9

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending Saturday October 17, 2026 be at least 205,000?27% · deadline 2026-10-23 Will the FOMC raise its federal funds rate target range at the October 27-28, 2026 meeting?22% · deadline 2026-10-29 Will U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending Saturday October 24, 2026 be at least 205,000?24% · deadline 2026-10-30 Will the BEA's advance estimate of US real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2026 be at least 3.5% (annualized), published on or before 31 October 2026?27% · deadline 2026-10-31 Will the U.S. annual CPI inflation rate for October 2026 be at least 3.4 %?52% · deadline 2026-11-20 Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the close of the last business day of November 2026 be at least 5.45 %?23% · deadline 2026-12-05 Will the FOMC raise its federal funds rate target range at the 2026-12-09 meeting?76% · deadline 2026-12-10 Will the U.S. unemployment rate for November 2026 be at least 4.2 %?64% · deadline 2026-12-20 Will the U.S. annual CPI inflation rate for November 2026 be at least 3.7 %?50% · deadline 2026-12-20

M&A — 4

Will AkzoNobel and Axalta complete their merger before 31 December 2026?33% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will Diversified Energy Company officially complete its acquisition of Birch Permian Holdings, Inc. and its affiliated entities on or before April 3, 2027?95% · deadline 2027-04-03 Will Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. officially close its acquisition of GC Ferry Holdings, Inc. by April 13, 2027?88% · deadline 2027-04-13 Will the Surface Transportation Board issue its final decision on the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger before 30 June 2027?38% · deadline 2027-06-30

Climat — 5

Will the NSIDC Sea Ice Index report an average Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent of at least 7.05 million km² for October 2026?44% · deadline 2026-11-10 Will NASA GISS report a global surface temperature anomaly of at least +1.45 °C (vs. 1951–1980) for October 2026?40% · deadline 2026-11-20 Will Copernicus report October 2026 as the warmest October on record?43% · deadline 2026-11-20 Will NASA GISS report a global surface temperature anomaly of at least +1.40 °C (vs. 1951–1980) for November 2026?49% · deadline 2026-12-20 Will NOAA's Climate Prediction Center report a 3-month RONI of at least +2.5°C for October–December 2026?78% · deadline 2027-01-31 · Withdrawn from tracking