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Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the close of the last business day of November 2026 be at least 5.45 %?

deadline 2026-12-05 confidence medium tier 2 evidence
23%Asturna estimate

Resolution criterion

Resolves YES if the last value published for November 2026 in the FRED series DGS10 (market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, daily, not seasonally adjusted (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15), republished by FRED), that is the close of the last business day of the month, is at least 5.45 %. The value is read on or after 2026-12-05 and the value read at that moment is final. If the data for that month are not yet available on 2026-12-05, the check is repeated until 2026-12-15, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 5.28 % (2026-10-07). Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Verified starting state

Computed base rate: 28% of past 37-business-day changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 5.45 %, reference 5.28 % (2026-10-07)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

What pushes it up

What pushes it down

What would move this number most

Upcoming inflation data and Treasury auction demand, which could either reignite yield surges or cement the recent retreat towards lower levels.

How this number is built

Deadline2026-12-05
Base rate28%
Best evidencetier 2 · 6 article(s) used
Independent runs22 · 23 (spread 1 pts)
Confidencemedium
Evidence capnot triggered
Last revised2026-10-17 09:09
Modelgemini-3.8-flash

Sources consulted

U.S. Treasury yields waver as traders wrap up volatile weektier 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-16Dollar pulls back from 18-month high as Treasury yields fall; Fed hike bets easetier 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-15Treasury yields slide as investors flee to safety of bonds amid tech routtier 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-15Analysis: Why a $2 trillion deficit and 5% Treasury yields are becoming America's biggest economic challengetier 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-15The 10-year Treasury yield falls as energy prices stabilizetier 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-13US 10-year Treasury yield risks hitting 6% for first time since 2000, Pimco's Ivascyn tells FTtier 2 · Reuters · 2026-10-09

Probability history

2026-10-17 09:09 23% 26 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
  • What pushes it up. Persistent structural pressures such as large federal deficits and long-term economic resilience keep upward pressure on bond yields [tier 2].
  • What pushes it up. Prominent bond managers have warned that 10-year yields risk reaching 6% if inflation or debt issuance trends continue [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. Treasury yields have faced downward pressure following early October highs as energy prices stabilized and investors sought safe-haven assets amid tech equity volatility [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. Market expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes have softened, limiting near-term upside momentum in yields [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Upcoming inflation data and Treasury auction demand, which could either reignite yield surges or cement the recent retreat towards lower levels.
2026-10-16 20:05 21% 25 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. Structural economic challenges, including a $2 trillion deficit, are putting upward pressure on yields [2].
  • What pushes it up. Pimco's managing director warned that the 10-year yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000 [7].
  • What pushes it up. Many economists believe that the era of low bond yields is over and higher rates are here to stay [6].
  • What pushes it up. Yields recently reached 24-year highs in early October, demonstrating strong upward momentum prior to the mid-month dip [15].
  • What pushes it down. Treasury yields have recently pulled back from 18-month highs as bets on further Fed hikes ease [0].
  • What pushes it down. A 'flight to safety' into bonds amid a technology stock rout has driven yields lower [1].
  • What pushes it down. Stabilization in energy prices has reduced inflationary pressure, contributing to falling yields [4].
  • What pushes it down. Market resistance was observed after recent bond auctions, with yields retreating from multiyear highs [10].
  • What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and whether upcoming inflation data triggers a renewed sell-off in bonds.
2026-10-14 09:06 25% 19 article(s) on file · gemini-flash-latest
  • What pushes it up. Economists and major bond investors like Pimco note that persistent fiscal deficits and inflation risks could keep yields structurally elevated, with some warning yields could test even higher levels [tier 2].
  • What pushes it up. Yields remain at multi-decade highs, meaning ongoing supply pressures from debt issuance can easily trigger another leg up [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. Yields retreated and stabilized in the week following the October 7 peak, driven by cooling energy prices and strong investor demand at recent Treasury auctions [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. Market participants and policy advisors view recent yields as potentially having peaked, creating downward resistance to reaching 5.45% [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Whether upcoming economic and inflation data reignite inflation fears or confirm stabilizing growth and energy prices.
2026-10-12 09:06 33% 13 article(s) on file · gemini-flash-latest
  • What pushes it up. Economists argue structural factors like heavy fiscal debt and persistent inflation mean higher bond yields are here to stay [tier 2].
  • What pushes it up. Pimco's Daniel Ivascyn warned of risks that the 10-year yield could reach 6% for the first time since 2000 [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. Treasury yields retreated from recent multi-year peaks as strong demand at Treasury auctions helped stabilize prices [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. Market participants and advisors have noted yields are stretched to multiyear highs and could soon pull back [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Upcoming inflation data and Treasury auction absorption over October and November that will determine whether yields break above 5.45% or consolidate lower.
2026-10-11 09:15 33% 12 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. Pimco's Ivascyn warns that the 10-year yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000, suggesting significant upside potential [0, tier 2]
  • What pushes it up. Yields recently reached 24-year highs, indicating strong upward momentum in the current market cycle [10, tier 4]
  • What pushes it up. Ongoing concerns regarding fiscal deficits and debt levels are cited as fundamental drivers for higher long-term yields [9, tier 4]
  • What pushes it down. Recent 10-year Treasury auctions have shown strong demand, which typically acts as a ceiling on yield increases [6, tier 2]
  • What pushes it down. Yields have shown a tendency to retreat or steady after reaching multi-year highs, suggesting a period of consolidation [1, 3, 4, tier 2]
  • What pushes it down. Some market advisors suggest that current yields are 'really, really high' and may be due for a downward correction soon [5, tier 2]
  • What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is the trajectory of inflation and employment data over the next 50 days, which will dictate Federal Reserve policy and market expectations.
2026-10-09 13:26 37% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. A global bond sell-off has recently pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh 24-year highs [5]
  • What pushes it up. Pimco's Ivascyn warned that the 10-year yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000 [0]
  • What pushes it up. The 10-year yield has shown strong upward momentum, having hit a 19-year high in September before climbing further in October [6]
  • What pushes it down. Recent Treasury yields have retreated from their early October highs as traders weigh auction results [1, 2]
  • What pushes it down. A strong 10-year Treasury auction suggests robust demand, which typically acts as a downward pressure or a cap on yields [3]
  • What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is whether upcoming inflation data or Federal Reserve policy shifts will sustain the current sell-off momentum or trigger a flight to safety that lowers yields.
2026-10-09 12:50 33% 7 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
  • What pushes it up. US 10‑year Treasury yield risks hitting 6% for first time since 2000 (Reuters, tier 2)
  • What pushes it down. Treasury yields lower after reaching multiyear highs (CNBC, tier 2)
  • What pushes it down. U.S. Treasury Yields Retreat From Early Highs (WSJ, tier 2)
  • What pushes it down. US government bonds steady after strong 10‑year Treasury auction (Financial Times, tier 2)
  • What would move this number most. Future monetary policy stance and inflation expectations will most influence whether the yield reaches 5.45%