Will Microsoft publish a peer-reviewed paper demonstrating a logical operation between at least two topological qubits before 31 December 2027?
deadline 2027-12-31
confidence high
tier 2 evidence
8%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Microsoft publishes in a peer-reviewed journal a demonstration of a two-qubit operation on topological qubits on its Majorana architecture. A blog announcement or a conference talk is not sufficient.
Verified starting state
The February 2025 Majorana 1 claim drew sustained challenges from the community (APS Physics, Physics World, Nature news) and the debate over the very existence of the topological qubit remained open in 2026. A single topological qubit is not yet established by consensus.
What pushes it up
- Microsoft continues to heavily fund its topological quantum program, recently announcing the Majorana 2 chip designed for improved stability [0, 1].
- Microsoft has partnered with DARPA, providing them access to the Majorana system, which could accelerate testing and validation [2].
What pushes it down
- The scientific community remains highly skeptical, with a mid-2026 Nature study and physicists actively disputing Microsoft's basic topological qubit claims [3, 4, 5].
- A single topological qubit is not yet established by consensus, making a two-qubit logical operation a massive leap to achieve and publish in peer-reviewed form within 14 months.
- The peer-review publication process itself typically takes several months to over a year, severely compressing the timeline for experimental success.
What would move this number most
Whether Microsoft can rapidly produce undisputed, reproducible experimental data on Majorana 2 that satisfies peer reviewers before the end of 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-12-31 |
| Base rate | 5% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 6 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 8 · 8 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-08 09:20 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-08 09:20 8% 11 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. Microsoft continues to heavily fund its topological quantum program, recently announcing the Majorana 2 chip designed for improved stability [0, 1].
- What pushes it up. Microsoft has partnered with DARPA, providing them access to the Majorana system, which could accelerate testing and validation [2].
- What pushes it down. The scientific community remains highly skeptical, with a mid-2026 Nature study and physicists actively disputing Microsoft's basic topological qubit claims [3, 4, 5].
- What pushes it down. A single topological qubit is not yet established by consensus, making a two-qubit logical operation a massive leap to achieve and publish in peer-reviewed form within 14 months.
- What pushes it down. The peer-review publication process itself typically takes several months to over a year, severely compressing the timeline for experimental success.
- What would move this number most. Whether Microsoft can rapidly produce undisputed, reproducible experimental data on Majorana 2 that satisfies peer reviewers before the end of 2027.
2026-09-22 00:40 13% 8 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).