Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket lift off on its first orbital launch attempt before 31 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 3 evidence
6%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Neutron lifts off from its launch pad on its first orbital launch attempt on or before 31 December 2026 (23:59 UTC), whether or not the flight reaches orbit, as confirmed by a Rocket Lab press release or SEC filing. A static fire, a wet dress rehearsal or an aborted countdown does not count. No liftoff by that date resolves No.
Verified starting state
Rocket Lab's SEC filing of 10 August 2026 says Neutron's Stage 1 tank production is aligned with delivering the rocket to the launch pad in Q4 2026, that "the window for an end-of-year launch date is narrowing", and that the debut could slip into 2027. Remaining milestones: Stage 1 qualification and other critical tests, engine testing, and an integrated static fire at the Virginia pad, which CEO Peter Beck called the highest-risk milestone. The debut was already pushed from mid-2026 to late 2026 after a first-stage fuel tank ruptured during a hydrostatic pressure test on 21 January 2026 (Spaceflight Now, 10 August 2026).
What pushes it up
- Fairing hardware has reached Wallops launch facilities, showing progress on pad integration [tier 4, article 2].
- Stage 1 tank production was targeting delivery to the pad in Q4 2026 [tier 1, starting state].
What pushes it down
- Ars Technica reports that Neutron's first launch has slipped again due to issues with carbon composites [tier 3, article 0].
- Local press reports confirm Rocket Lab has officially or unofficially delayed the debut to next year [tier 4, article 1].
- Extensive critical milestones remain incomplete with less than 2.5 months left, including Stage 1 qualification, engine testing, and the high-risk integrated static fire at Wallops [tier 1, starting state].
- Rocket Lab previously acknowledged in August 2026 SEC filings that the end-of-year window was narrowing and a slip into 2027 was probable [tier 1, starting state].
What would move this number most
Whether Rocket Lab conducts an unexpectedly rapid campaign of static firing and launches before year-end, or formalizes the slip to 2027 via SEC disclosure.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 15% |
| Best evidence | tier 3 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 6 · 6 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-16 12:02 |
| Model | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-16 12:02 6% 9 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
- What pushes it up. Fairing hardware has reached Wallops launch facilities, showing progress on pad integration [tier 4, article 2].
- What pushes it up. Stage 1 tank production was targeting delivery to the pad in Q4 2026 [tier 1, starting state].
- What pushes it down. Ars Technica reports that Neutron's first launch has slipped again due to issues with carbon composites [tier 3, article 0].
- What pushes it down. Local press reports confirm Rocket Lab has officially or unofficially delayed the debut to next year [tier 4, article 1].
- What pushes it down. Extensive critical milestones remain incomplete with less than 2.5 months left, including Stage 1 qualification, engine testing, and the high-risk integrated static fire at Wallops [tier 1, starting state].
- What pushes it down. Rocket Lab previously acknowledged in August 2026 SEC filings that the end-of-year window was narrowing and a slip into 2027 was probable [tier 1, starting state].
- What would move this number most. Whether Rocket Lab conducts an unexpectedly rapid campaign of static firing and launches before year-end, or formalizes the slip to 2027 via SEC disclosure.
2026-10-15 16:41 31% 8 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. SEC filing shows Stage 1 tank production is on track and an integrated static fire is planned, indicating progress toward a Q4 launch [1]
- What pushes it down. SEC filing warns the debut could slip into 2027, suggesting the Q4 2026 window may be missed [1]
- What pushes it down. Tier‑4 reports repeatedly note further delays to 2027, reinforcing the risk of a slip [0,3,4]
- What would move this number most. Whether the upcoming integrated static fire and stage‑1 qualification will be completed without further setbacks before year‑end