Will the U.S. unemployment rate for November 2026 be at least 4.2 %?
deadline 2026-12-20
confidence high
tier 1 evidence
64%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-12-20 from the FRED series UNRATE (civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, BLS data republished by FRED) shows for November 2026 a rate (one decimal) of at least 4.2 %. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual seasonal-adjustment revisions, do not change the outcome). If the November 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 4.2 % (September 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Verified starting state
Computed base rate: 52% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 4.2 %, reference 4.2 % in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
What pushes it up
- The unemployment rate reached 4.2% in September 2026, meaning it only needs to remain stable or increase to meet the threshold [1, 6].
- Job growth in September was significantly lower than expected at only 29,000, indicating a cooling labor market [4, 5].
- Disappointing jobs reports suggest ongoing challenges for the economy [3].
- Labor market stress in neighboring Canada suggests regional economic headwinds [0, 10].
What pushes it down
- Weekly jobless claims dipped to 197,000, which suggests the labor market may still possess underlying resilience [11].
- Some reports characterize the labor market as still being on a 'steady track' despite the slow month [2].
What would move this number most
Whether the sharp drop in job additions in September was a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a sustained upward trend in unemployment.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-20 |
| Base rate | 52% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 10 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 62 · 65 (spread 3 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-11 09:18 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-11 09:18 64% 13 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The unemployment rate reached 4.2% in September 2026, meaning it only needs to remain stable or increase to meet the threshold [1, 6].
- What pushes it up. Job growth in September was significantly lower than expected at only 29,000, indicating a cooling labor market [4, 5].
- What pushes it up. Disappointing jobs reports suggest ongoing challenges for the economy [3].
- What pushes it up. Labor market stress in neighboring Canada suggests regional economic headwinds [0, 10].
- What pushes it down. Weekly jobless claims dipped to 197,000, which suggests the labor market may still possess underlying resilience [11].
- What pushes it down. Some reports characterize the labor market as still being on a 'steady track' despite the slow month [2].
- What would move this number most. Whether the sharp drop in job additions in September was a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a sustained upward trend in unemployment.
2026-10-10 12:49 62% 9 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
- What pushes it up. September 2026 U.S. payrolls increased by only 29,000 as the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, signaling decelerating labor demand [2].
- What pushes it up. Persistent slowing in hiring makes an immediate two-month drop of 0.1 percentage points or more to 4.1% or lower unlikely [2].
- What pushes it down. A modest drop of just 0.1 percentage points over two months would resolve the question NO, which occurs roughly 48% of the time historically [1].
- What pushes it down. U.S. initial jobless claims dipped to 197,000, signaling that layoffs remain relatively low and the labor market retains underlying resilience [4, corroborated by 2].
- What would move this number most. Whether October and November payroll growth rebounds enough to reverse the recent uptick in the unemployment rate by at least 0.1 percentage points.
2026-10-09 12:20 61% 6 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. September 2026 unemployment rate was reported at 4.2 %, indicating the threshold is already met and could persist into November [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Recent labor‑market data show a slowdown, which historically precedes higher unemployment rates [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Jobless claims dipped to 197,000, signaling labor‑market resilience that could keep unemployment below 4.2 % [tier 4]
- What pushes it down. Midterm‑related hiring slowdown may be temporary and not translate into higher unemployment [tier 4]
- What would move this number most. The actual October and November unemployment figures; any unexpected shift in hiring or claims trends would move the estimate most.