Will NCT05850689 (Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc.) still show a study completion date of 5 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 5 May 2027?
deadline 2027-05-05
confidence high
tier 1 evidence
78%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT05850689 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 5 May 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 5 April 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 2 October 2026: NCT05850689 is registered as RECRUITING, sponsored by Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc., with 470 participants. Started 2023-05; announced primary completion 2027-04-05, announced study completion 2027-04-05. Record last updated 2026-09-25. The date under test is 2027-04-05. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05850689
What pushes it up
- The sponsor re-verified status and updated the record as recently as 25 September 2026, maintaining the target date of 5 April 2027 [1].
- The target completion date is only 5.5 months away from the current date, leaving a narrow window for major timeline revisions [1].
What pushes it down
- The trial is still in active recruitment with an estimated enrollment of 470 participants, making it vulnerable to final-stage enrollment delays that could push back the completion date [1].
- Under the resolution rules, any status change to Unknown, Suspended, or Terminated, or any delay past 5 April 2027 automatically resolves as No [1].
What would move this number most
Whether final patient recruitment and data collection are completed on schedule before April 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-05-05 |
| Base rate | 75% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 78 · 78 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-17 15:01 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-17 15:01 78% 1 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. The sponsor re-verified status and updated the record as recently as 25 September 2026, maintaining the target date of 5 April 2027 [1].
- What pushes it up. The target completion date is only 5.5 months away from the current date, leaving a narrow window for major timeline revisions [1].
- What pushes it down. The trial is still in active recruitment with an estimated enrollment of 470 participants, making it vulnerable to final-stage enrollment delays that could push back the completion date [1].
- What pushes it down. Under the resolution rules, any status change to Unknown, Suspended, or Terminated, or any delay past 5 April 2027 automatically resolves as No [1].
- What would move this number most. Whether final patient recruitment and data collection are completed on schedule before April 2027.
2026-10-03 09:00 60% 0 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. No recent press or regulatory notice indicates a delay; the current ClinicalTrials.gov record (tier 1) still lists 2027‑04‑05 as the study completion date.
- What pushes it up. The sponsor, Intra‑Cellular Therapies, Inc., has no publicly reported operational issues that would suggest a postponement.
- What pushes it down. The record has not been updated since 25 Sep 2026, which is 8 months before the deadline; many trials miss their scheduled dates.
- What pushes it down. Typical delay rate for primary completion dates is around 35%, implying a non‑negligible chance of a push‑back.
- What would move this number most. Whether the sponsor will update the ClinicalTrials.gov record or delay the study before the deadline.