Will NCT03815643 (EMD Serono Research & Development Institute, Inc.) still show a study completion date of 24 November 2026 or earlier when checked on 24 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-24
confidence high
tier 1 evidence
83%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT03815643 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 24 December 2026, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 24 November 2026 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 2 October 2026: NCT03815643 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by EMD Serono Research & Development Institute, Inc., with 205 participants. Started 2019-03; announced primary completion 2026-11-24, announced study completion 2026-11-24. Record last updated 2026-09-22. The date under test is 2026-11-24. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03815643
What pushes it up
- The trial record was updated on September 22, 2026, confirming an exact study completion date of November 24, 2026 [tier 1].
- Enrollment is complete with 205 actual participants and status ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, meaning the trial is in its final follow-up stage [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Administrative processing, final data locking, or patient follow-up delays can trigger late completion date extensions [tier 1].
- A status change to Suspended, Terminated, or Unknown before 24 December 2026 would resolve the question as a No [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether data cleaning and final follow-up management require EMD Serono to push the completion date back during the final weeks of the trial.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-24 |
| Base rate | 80% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 80 · 85 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-12 12:19 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-12 12:19 83% 1 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. The trial record was updated on September 22, 2026, confirming an exact study completion date of November 24, 2026 [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Enrollment is complete with 205 actual participants and status ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, meaning the trial is in its final follow-up stage [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Administrative processing, final data locking, or patient follow-up delays can trigger late completion date extensions [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. A status change to Suspended, Terminated, or Unknown before 24 December 2026 would resolve the question as a No [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether data cleaning and final follow-up management require EMD Serono to push the completion date back during the final weeks of the trial.
2026-10-03 09:01 70% 0 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it down. Typical delays in clinical trials can push completion dates back, reducing the likelihood that the date remains unchanged or earlier.
- What would move this number most. Whether unforeseen issues or regulatory delays will cause the study to be postponed beyond the announced completion date.