Will Quantinuum deliver its "Sol" system with at least 192 physical qubits before 31 December 2027?
deadline 2027-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
71%Asturna estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 75%, brought back to 71% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if Quantinuum publicly announces that a system named Sol with at least 192 physical qubits is in service, for customers or internally.
Verified starting state
Helios's successor, "Sol", is expected in 2027 with 192 physical qubits and 100 logical qubits. Helios (98 trapped-ion qubits) is operational and demonstrated the Helix architecture in September 2026: [[20,2,6]] code, logical memory error 4.6e-5 per cycle, logical gate error 2.8e-4.
What pushes it up
- Helios (98 qubits) is already operational as of September 2026, providing a solid foundation for its successor [1]
- The Helix architecture, which Sol will utilize, has already been successfully demonstrated in Helios [1]
- Quantinuum has a strong historical track record of delivering on its H-series hardware roadmap [1]
What pushes it down
- Scaling trapped-ion systems requires overcoming significant physical and engineering hurdles in ion transport and laser control that increase with qubit count [1]
- The 2027 delivery window leaves limited margin for error or technical setbacks given the complexity of the 100 logical qubit goal [1]
What would move this number most
The technical difficulty of doubling the physical qubit count while simultaneously aiming for a massive increase in logical qubits within a 14-month window.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-12-31 |
| Base rate | 65% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 68 · 73 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 75% brought back to 71% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-09 13:20 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-09 13:20 71% 3 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Helios (98 qubits) is already operational as of September 2026, providing a solid foundation for its successor [1]
- What pushes it up. The Helix architecture, which Sol will utilize, has already been successfully demonstrated in Helios [1]
- What pushes it up. Quantinuum has a strong historical track record of delivering on its H-series hardware roadmap [1]
- What pushes it down. Scaling trapped-ion systems requires overcoming significant physical and engineering hurdles in ion transport and laser control that increase with qubit count [1]
- What pushes it down. The 2027 delivery window leaves limited margin for error or technical setbacks given the complexity of the 100 logical qubit goal [1]
- What would move this number most. The technical difficulty of doubling the physical qubit count while simultaneously aiming for a massive increase in logical qubits within a 14-month window.
2026-10-07 09:19 20% 2 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Roadmap expectation that Sol will have 192 qubits in 2027, based on the company’s public roadmap and Helios operational status [tier 1]
- What pushes it up. Helios already demonstrates the Helix architecture, indicating technical progress toward larger systems [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. No public announcement of Sol with 192 qubits has been made yet; only a future expectation is stated [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. 192 qubits is a high target and many quantum companies miss such milestones or delay them beyond the stated year [tier 1]
- What would move this number most. Whether Quantinuum will publicly announce that Sol with at least 192 physical qubits is in service before 31 December 2027
2026-09-20 09:08 64% 0 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).