Will IBM bring a "Kookaburra" processor into service before 31 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
77%Asturna estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 75%, brought back to 77% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if IBM publicly announces (IBM Quantum blog, newsroom, or hardware page) that a processor named Kookaburra is in service, described as storing information in a qLDPC memory coupled to a logical processing unit.
Verified starting state
The IBM roadmap places Kookaburra in 2026 as the first modular processor of this kind. Loon (2025) and Nighthawk (120 qubits, 2025) have shipped. No Kookaburra announcement as of 17 September 2026. IBM met its 2023–2025 milestones, but Kookaburra is the first modular architectural jump.
What pushes it up
- IBM has successfully met all its 2023–2025 roadmap milestones, including the shipping of the Loon and Nighthawk processors [1].
- The Kookaburra processor is explicitly scheduled for 2026 on the official IBM Quantum roadmap [1].
What pushes it down
- Kookaburra represents the first 'modular architectural jump' for IBM, which introduces higher technical risk than previous incremental updates [1].
- As of October 6, 2026, there has been no public announcement regarding the processor's status, leaving a narrow window for the end-of-year release [1].
What would move this number most
The technical complexity of implementing qLDPC memory coupled to a logical processing unit in a modular architecture.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 85% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 67 · 77 · 82 (spread 15 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 75% brought back to 77% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-06 09:13 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-06 09:13 77% 3 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. IBM has successfully met all its 2023–2025 roadmap milestones, including the shipping of the Loon and Nighthawk processors [1].
- What pushes it up. The Kookaburra processor is explicitly scheduled for 2026 on the official IBM Quantum roadmap [1].
- What pushes it down. Kookaburra represents the first 'modular architectural jump' for IBM, which introduces higher technical risk than previous incremental updates [1].
- What pushes it down. As of October 6, 2026, there has been no public announcement regarding the processor's status, leaving a narrow window for the end-of-year release [1].
- What would move this number most. The technical complexity of implementing qLDPC memory coupled to a logical processing unit in a modular architecture.
2026-09-20 09:07 67% 0 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).