Will the BEA's advance estimate of US real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2026 be at least 3.5% (annualized), published on or before 31 October 2026?
deadline 2026-10-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
27%Asturna estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 38%, brought back to 27% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026" release, published on or before 31 October 2026, reports real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) of 3.5% or higher. Only the advance estimate counts; later revisions are ignored. A reported figure below 3.5%, or no advance estimate published by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The BEA release schedule lists the Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate for 29 October 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model (a nowcast, not an official probability forecast) stood at 3.6% for Q3 on 15 October 2026, unchanged from the previous week (3.7% on 6 October, 3.6% on 8 October). GDPNow is a reference point only; the advance estimate can differ from it by more than a point.
What pushes it up
- The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q3 2026 growth at 3.6% as of 15 October 2026, which sits just above the 3.5% threshold [1].
- The BEA advance estimate is scheduled for publication on 29 October 2026, comfortably ahead of the 31 October deadline [1].
What pushes it down
- The 3.6% GDPNow estimate exceeds the 3.5% threshold by only 0.1 percentage point, leaving virtually no buffer against typical model error [1].
- Historically, GDPNow can differ from the BEA advance estimate by a percentage point or more, and consensus estimates typically pull strongly toward the ~2% long-run trend [1].
What would move this number most
The final batch of source data for September (notably inventories, foreign trade, and personal consumption) incorporated by the BEA before 29 October.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-10-31 |
| Base rate | 18% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 26 · 28 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 38% brought back to 27% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-18 09:02 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |
Probability history
2026-10-18 09:02 27% 0 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
- What pushes it up. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q3 2026 growth at 3.6% as of 15 October 2026, which sits just above the 3.5% threshold [1].
- What pushes it up. The BEA advance estimate is scheduled for publication on 29 October 2026, comfortably ahead of the 31 October deadline [1].
- What pushes it down. The 3.6% GDPNow estimate exceeds the 3.5% threshold by only 0.1 percentage point, leaving virtually no buffer against typical model error [1].
- What pushes it down. Historically, GDPNow can differ from the BEA advance estimate by a percentage point or more, and consensus estimates typically pull strongly toward the ~2% long-run trend [1].
- What would move this number most. The final batch of source data for September (notably inventories, foreign trade, and personal consumption) incorporated by the BEA before 29 October.
2026-10-17 20:01 30% 0 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model currently estimates Q3 2026 growth at 3.6%, which is above the 3.5% threshold [1].
- What pushes it up. The GDPNow estimate has remained stable, staying between 3.6% and 3.7% throughout the first half of October [1].
- What pushes it down. The margin between the current nowcast (3.6%) and the threshold (3.5%) is only 0.1 percentage points, providing very little room for error [1].
- What pushes it down. The BEA advance estimate can differ from the GDPNow model by more than one percentage point, meaning a 3.6% nowcast is not a guarantee of the final result [1].
- What would move this number most. The inherent volatility and measurement error between the GDPNow nowcast and the official BEA advance estimate.