Will NCT05438407 (Pharming Technologies B.V.) still show a study completion date of 30 December 2026 or earlier when checked on 29 January 2027?
deadline 2027-01-29
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
74%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT05438407 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 29 January 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 30 December 2026 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used.
Verified starting state
As of 1 October 2026: NCT05438407 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Pharming Technologies B.V., with 15 participants. Started 2023-02; announced primary completion 2026-11-30, announced study completion 2026-12-30. Record last updated 2026-05-06. The date under test is 2026-12-30. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05438407
What pushes it up
- The trial has already completed enrollment with a small cohort of 15 participants, minimizing the risk of enrollment-related delays [tier 1].
- The sponsor re-verified the timeline in May 2026, retaining the 2026-12-30 completion date, and the record cannot trigger 'Unknown status' under ClinicalTrials.gov rules before 2028 [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Clinical trial follow-up visits and administrative database locks frequently encounter minor slippages of a few months, which would push the study completion date past December 2026 [tier 1].
- Sponsors updating year-end milestones often roll completion dates forward into the first quarter of the following year during fourth-quarter record reviews [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether Pharming Technologies logs an updated, extended completion date during final patient follow-up between October 2026 and January 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-01-29 |
| Base rate | 70% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 74 · 74 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-12 12:18 |
| Model | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-12 12:18 74% 0 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
- What pushes it up. The trial has already completed enrollment with a small cohort of 15 participants, minimizing the risk of enrollment-related delays [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. The sponsor re-verified the timeline in May 2026, retaining the 2026-12-30 completion date, and the record cannot trigger 'Unknown status' under ClinicalTrials.gov rules before 2028 [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Clinical trial follow-up visits and administrative database locks frequently encounter minor slippages of a few months, which would push the study completion date past December 2026 [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Sponsors updating year-end milestones often roll completion dates forward into the first quarter of the following year during fourth-quarter record reviews [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether Pharming Technologies logs an updated, extended completion date during final patient follow-up between October 2026 and January 2027.
2026-10-01 11:29 56% 0 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. The official ClinicalTrials.gov record (tier 1) as of 1 Oct 2026 lists the study completion date as 30 Dec 2026 and the study is ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, indicating it is near the end of its timeline [1]
- What pushes it down. Historical data show a substantial fraction of trials are delayed beyond their announced dates, and the lack of any update between Oct and Jan could signal a pending delay [general knowledge]
- What would move this number most. Whether Pharming Technologies updates the record with a delay before 29 Jan 2027