Will NCT07000136 (AstraZeneca) still show a study completion date of 4 January 2027 or earlier when checked on 3 February 2027?
deadline 2027-02-03
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
68%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT07000136 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 3 February 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 4 January 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used.
Verified starting state
As of 30 September 2026: NCT07000136 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by AstraZeneca, with 473 participants. Started 2025-06; announced primary completion 2027-01-04, announced study completion 2027-01-04. Record last updated 2026-07-16. The date under test is 2027-01-04. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07000136
What pushes it up
- Recruitment is already complete with an actual enrollment of 473 participants, eliminating the most common source of clinical trial delay [tier 1]
- The record was updated and reaffirmed by AstraZeneca in July 2026 with the specific date of 4 January 2027, just six months ahead of completion [tier 1]
What pushes it down
- Final patient follow-up or protocol milestones can easily slip by weeks or months, and any postponement past 4 January 2027 results in a negative resolution [tier 1]
- Any registry lapse leading to an Unknown or Terminated status before 3 February 2027 automatically resolves as No under the resolution criteria [tier 1]
What would move this number most
Whether AstraZeneca experiences follow-up monitoring delays or pushes the completion date during year-end trial maintenance
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-02-03 |
| Base rate | 65% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 68 · 68 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-12 12:18 |
| Model | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-12 12:18 68% 4 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
- What pushes it up. Recruitment is already complete with an actual enrollment of 473 participants, eliminating the most common source of clinical trial delay [tier 1]
- What pushes it up. The record was updated and reaffirmed by AstraZeneca in July 2026 with the specific date of 4 January 2027, just six months ahead of completion [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. Final patient follow-up or protocol milestones can easily slip by weeks or months, and any postponement past 4 January 2027 results in a negative resolution [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. Any registry lapse leading to an Unknown or Terminated status before 3 February 2027 automatically resolves as No under the resolution criteria [tier 1]
- What would move this number most. Whether AstraZeneca experiences follow-up monitoring delays or pushes the completion date during year-end trial maintenance
2026-09-30 14:09 70% 0 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it down. Typical delay rate of 20‑25% for clinical trials, which could push the completion date later. (tier 4)
- What would move this number most. Whether the study will experience a delay or early completion before the deadline.