Will NCT06641076 (MoonLake Immunotherapeutics AG) still show a study completion date of 4 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 6 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-06
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
82%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06641076 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 6 March 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 4 February 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used.
Verified starting state
As of 25 September 2026: NCT06641076 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by MoonLake Immunotherapeutics AG, with 960 participants. Started 2024-10; announced primary completion 2027-02-04, announced study completion 2027-02-04. Record last updated 2026-08-12. The date under test is 2027-02-04. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06641076
What pushes it up
- The trial status is ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with all 960 participants enrolled, removing enrollment delays as a potential risk factor [tier 1].
- The target completion date of 4 February 2027 is less than four months away from the current date of October 2026 [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Data cleaning, site closeouts, or administrative processing delays could still result in a minor postponement of the study completion date on ClinicalTrials.gov.
- The available external press coverage consists only of a tier 4 article, offering no independent tier 1 or 2 updates beyond the registry data [tier 4].
What would move this number most
Whether routine administrative closeout and data verification activities are completed fast enough to keep the registry date on or before 4 February 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-06 |
| Base rate | 80% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 82 · 82 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-06 00:53 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-06 00:53 82% 1 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. The trial status is ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with all 960 participants enrolled, removing enrollment delays as a potential risk factor [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. The target completion date of 4 February 2027 is less than four months away from the current date of October 2026 [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Data cleaning, site closeouts, or administrative processing delays could still result in a minor postponement of the study completion date on ClinicalTrials.gov.
- What pushes it down. The available external press coverage consists only of a tier 4 article, offering no independent tier 1 or 2 updates beyond the registry data [tier 4].
- What would move this number most. Whether routine administrative closeout and data verification activities are completed fast enough to keep the registry date on or before 4 February 2027.
2026-10-06 00:47 65% 1 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Official ClinicalTrials.gov record as of 25 Sep 2026 lists the study completion date as 4 Feb 2027 and the trial is ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, indicating it is progressing on schedule [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. Clinical trials often experience delays in the final months; the record has not been updated since Aug 2026, leaving room for a later change [general knowledge]
- What would move this number most. Any unreported delay or amendment to the protocol between Sep 2026 and Mar 2027 would most affect the estimate
2026-09-25 02:31 83% 1 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. The trial is in ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING status, meaning recruitment is fully completed, eliminating the most common source of trial delays [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. MoonLake announced positive topline results for the Phase 3 IZAR-1 trial in August 2026, indicating that the primary clinical phase is complete and analyzed [tier 4, Article 0].
- What pushes it down. Administrative delays in final data lock or reporting could still lead to minor adjustments of the official study completion date on clinicaltrials.gov [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether administrative processing of the final trial data causes a minor delay in updating the official study completion date on clinicaltrials.gov.