Will the FOMC raise its federal funds rate target range at the October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
deadline 2026-10-29
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
22%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if the FOMC statement published after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting says the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. Resolves NO if the statement says the range was maintained or lowered.
Verified starting state
As of the September 16, 2026 meeting, the federal funds target range was 3.75-4.00% (a 25bp increase from the prior meeting).
What pushes it up
- Dallas Fed President Logan stated that interest rates still need to rise by 50 basis points [tier 2].
- FOMC communications following the September hike explicitly signaled an expectation of another rate hike before year-end [tier 2].
What pushes it down
- Market pricing via Fed funds futures assigns only an 18% probability to an October hike, heavily favoring a hold until December [tier 1].
- Holding the meeting days before the midterm elections creates political sensitivity, providing incentive to defer any further tightening to the December meeting [tier 2].
- Having already raised rates by 25 bps in September, policymakers often prefer an alternate-meeting cadence when approaching terminal rates [tier 2].
What would move this number most
Whether incoming inflation and labor market data between the September meeting and late October show persistent acceleration that compels the FOMC to move again immediately rather than waiting for December.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-10-29 |
| Base rate | 18% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 22 · 22 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-18 09:01 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-18 09:01 22% 57 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
- What pushes it up. Dallas Fed President Logan stated that interest rates still need to rise by 50 basis points [tier 2].
- What pushes it up. FOMC communications following the September hike explicitly signaled an expectation of another rate hike before year-end [tier 2].
- What pushes it down. Market pricing via Fed funds futures assigns only an 18% probability to an October hike, heavily favoring a hold until December [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Holding the meeting days before the midterm elections creates political sensitivity, providing incentive to defer any further tightening to the December meeting [tier 2].
- What pushes it down. Having already raised rates by 25 bps in September, policymakers often prefer an alternate-meeting cadence when approaching terminal rates [tier 2].
- What would move this number most. Whether incoming inflation and labor market data between the September meeting and late October show persistent acceleration that compels the FOMC to move again immediately rather than waiting for December.
2026-10-17 09:03 20% 55 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The FOMC explicitly signaled 'one more' rate hike to come in 2026 following its September meeting [3, 5].
- What pushes it up. Dallas Fed President Logan (Tier 2) stated that interest rates need to be 0.5% higher than current levels [0].
- What pushes it up. Recent inflation data is described as 'alarming,' potentially increasing the urgency for a hike [11].
- What pushes it down. The October meeting occurs just before midterm elections, which may lead the Committee to prefer a pause until December [1].
- What pushes it down. Market futures (ZQX26) currently price in only an 18% probability of a hike at the October meeting [Base Rate].
- What pushes it down. Some market reports suggest a 66% probability that the Fed will maintain the current rate in October [8].
- What would move this number most. The estimate deviates slightly from the base rate due to hawkish Tier 2 signals from Logan [0] and the Fed's own guidance [3], though the primary uncertainty is whether the FOMC will act in October or wait until December to avoid political sensitivity before elections [1].
2026-10-16 12:00 23% 54 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The FOMC explicitly signaled one more rate hike for 2026 during the September meeting [3, 5]
- What pushes it up. Dallas Fed President Logan stated that rates need to be 0.5% higher than current levels, suggesting two more 25bp hikes are needed [0]
- What pushes it up. The Fed's current policy is focused on fighting inflation, which remains a primary concern [2, 10]
- What pushes it down. Market futures (ZQX26) imply a low 18% probability of a hike specifically in the October meeting [Reference]
- What pushes it down. The proximity of the October meeting to the midterm elections may encourage the Committee to pause to avoid the appearance of political influence [1]
- What pushes it down. A tier 4 source indicates that market odds for a pause remain high at 66% [8]
- What would move this number most. The timing of the final signaled hike of 2026, specifically whether the FOMC prefers to act in October or wait for the December meeting.
2026-10-15 09:03 36% 52 article(s) on file · gemini-flash-latest
- What pushes it up. The FOMC signaled at the September meeting that one more rate hike is expected before the end of the year [tier 2].
- What pushes it up. Dallas Fed President Logan explicitly argued that interest rates need to be half a percentage point higher to curb inflation [tier 2].
- What pushes it up. The Fed demonstrated willingness to tighten policy aggressively despite external political pushback, prioritizing inflation control [tier 2].
- What pushes it down. With two meetings remaining in the year and only one hike projected, the Committee may prefer to skip October and wait until December, especially given the proximity to the midterm elections [tier 2].
- What pushes it down. Fed funds futures reflect skepticism about back-to-back hikes, pricing only roughly a one-in-three chance of an October increase [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether the FOMC chooses to act immediately in October or wait until the December meeting to deliver the single remaining hike projected for 2026.
2026-10-06 00:59 25% 26 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. The Fed signaled in September 2026 that at least one more rate hike is expected this year [tier 2, CNBC, FT].
- What pushes it up. Dallas Fed President Logan stated on October 1, 2026, that interest rates need to be half a percent higher, suggesting multiple hikes may still be needed [tier 2, Barron's].
- What pushes it down. An October rate hike would take place immediately before the midterm elections, which is politically sensitive and may encourage the Fed to pause until December [tier 2, NYT].
- What pushes it down. Having just raised rates in September, the Fed may choose to skip the October meeting to observe the lagging effects of its policy [tier 2, NYT].
- What would move this number most. Upcoming inflation and labor market data releases before the October meeting, which will determine if the Fed feels forced to act before the midterms or can wait.
2026-10-06 00:56 52% 26 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Dallas Fed’s Logan says rates need to be half‑percent higher, indicating a push for another hike [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. The New York Times reports a prospect of another rate increase just before the midterm elections [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. CNBC notes the September 16 decision signaled one more hike to come this year [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Financial Times states the Fed raised rates with likely more to come [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. FedWatch market data still only shows a 24% chance of a hike, reflecting modest expectations [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. No tier‑1 official statement or confirmed policy decision has been released for the October meeting, keeping uncertainty high [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Political considerations around the upcoming midterm elections may temper further tightening [tier 2]
- What would move this number most. The Fed’s internal assessment of inflation and labor‑market data released in late October could swing the decision either way.
2026-10-02 09:07 76% 18 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The FOMC explicitly signaled 'one more' interest rate hike to come in 2026 following its September meeting [3].
- What pushes it up. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that interest rates likely need to be 50 basis points higher than current levels, suggesting two more 25bp hikes [0].
- What pushes it up. The Federal Reserve is maintaining a hawkish stance to ensure a 'timelier' retreat in inflation [2], [5].
- What pushes it down. The signaled 'one more' hike for 2026 could occur at the November meeting instead of December, potentially leading to a pause in the final meeting of the year [3].
- What pushes it down. Economists remain divided on whether further tightening is necessary, citing potential economic cooling [10].
- What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is the timing of the next hike; if the Fed acts in November to get ahead of the midterm elections as suggested by some reports [1], they may opt to hold in December unless inflation data remains unexpectedly high.
2026-09-29 18:29 83% 14 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Elections – signals political timing for a hike [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation – indicates another move is likely [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year – direct hint of a forthcoming increase [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Divided economists weigh in – some argue the Fed may pause given mixed data [tier 4]
- What would move this number most. Whether new inflation or labor‑market data released before the Oct 27‑28 meeting will persuade the Committee to hold rather than hike
2026-09-29 17:32 83% 14 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Elections – market sees political timing pressure [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year – explicit hint of another hike [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Federal Reserve raises fed funds rate with likely more to come – suggests continuation of tightening cycle [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation – indicates aggressive stance to curb inflation [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Divided economists weigh in – some analysts expect the Fed may pause given recent rapid hikes [tier 4]
- What pushes it down. Fed Officials Don’t Sound Done Hiking – hints of possible caution or pause [tier 4]
- What would move this number most. Upcoming inflation and labor market data released just before the meeting could sway the Committee either way.
2026-09-27 09:03 40% 11 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. The FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026 and signaled that another rate increase is planned before the end of the year [tier 2, article 2, 4].
- What pushes it up. Fed officials continue to emphasize pushing for a timelier retreat in inflation, maintaining upward pressure on interest rates [tier 2, article 1].
- What pushes it down. The FOMC signaled only one additional rate hike for the rest of 2026, which may occur at the pre-midterm election meeting in November rather than in December [tier 2, article 0, 2].
- What pushes it down. If the Fed acts in November, the Committee is likely to maintain the rate in December to assess economic data.
- What would move this number most. Whether the FOMC chooses to implement its remaining projected 2026 rate hike at the November meeting or defers it to the December meeting.