Will PsiQuantum publish a peer-reviewed demonstration of a corrected logical qubit on photonic hardware before 31 December 2027?
deadline 2027-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
14%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if PsiQuantum, alone or with academic co-authors, publishes in a peer-reviewed journal an experimental demonstration of a logical qubit encoded and corrected on its photonic platform. An arXiv preprint alone is not sufficient.
Verified starting state
PsiQuantum broke ground on the Brisbane site on 17 June 2026 and launched the Construct software tool. No publication of a corrected logical qubit on PsiQuantum photonic hardware was found. The company chose to skip the NISQ stage and communicates few intermediate hardware results.
What pushes it up
- PsiQuantum is heavily funded and specifically focused on fault-tolerant quantum computing, which inherently requires logical qubits [1].
- They have recently opened public access to their Construct software for fault-tolerant algorithm design, indicating active progress towards fault tolerance [0, 4].
What pushes it down
- PsiQuantum has a stated strategy of skipping the NISQ stage and rarely publishes intermediate hardware results (Starting State).
- The peer-review process typically takes several months to a year, and no preprint of a logical qubit demonstration has been released as of late 2026.
- PsiQuantum only broke ground on its Brisbane facility in mid-2026, suggesting utility-scale hardware is still in early deployment phases (Starting State).
What would move this number most
Whether PsiQuantum decides to change its secrecy policy and publish intermediate hardware milestones before their full system is complete.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-12-31 |
| Base rate | 20% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 12 · 15 (spread 3 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-08 09:19 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-08 09:19 14% 5 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. PsiQuantum is heavily funded and specifically focused on fault-tolerant quantum computing, which inherently requires logical qubits [1].
- What pushes it up. They have recently opened public access to their Construct software for fault-tolerant algorithm design, indicating active progress towards fault tolerance [0, 4].
- What pushes it down. PsiQuantum has a stated strategy of skipping the NISQ stage and rarely publishes intermediate hardware results (Starting State).
- What pushes it down. The peer-review process typically takes several months to a year, and no preprint of a logical qubit demonstration has been released as of late 2026.
- What pushes it down. PsiQuantum only broke ground on its Brisbane facility in mid-2026, suggesting utility-scale hardware is still in early deployment phases (Starting State).
- What would move this number most. Whether PsiQuantum decides to change its secrecy policy and publish intermediate hardware milestones before their full system is complete.
2026-09-22 00:40 8% 4 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).