Will a Starship vehicle lift off from Launch Complex 39A in Florida before 31 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
28%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if a Starship launch vehicle (Super Heavy booster with ship) lifts off from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, on or before 31 December 2026, as confirmed by SpaceX or the FAA. Launches from Starbase, Texas, do not count; a static fire or a launch attempt that does not lift off does not count.
Verified starting state
As of 14 October 2026 no Starship has launched from Florida. FAA planning material points to a first Florida launch from LC-39A around 10 December 2026; this target is not confirmed by SpaceX and Starship schedules have slipped repeatedly (Flight 15 itself has no official date).
What pushes it up
- FAA planning material indicates an anticipated target launch window around 10 December 2026 from LC-39A [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- SpaceX has not officially confirmed the 10 December target date, and prior Starship flight schedules have repeatedly experienced slips [tier 1].
- Only 77 days remain until the 31 December 2026 deadline, leaving virtually no margin if the debut is delayed by even three weeks [tier 1].
- All recent press reports regarding readiness are tier 4 sources and lack corroboration from official regulatory filings or SpaceX confirmation [tier 4].
What would move this number most
Whether SpaceX receives FAA launch license modifications and completes integrated testing (wet dress rehearsal and static fire) at LC-39A before December.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 30% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 28 · 28 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-15 15:01 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-15 15:01 28% 9 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
- What pushes it up. FAA planning material indicates an anticipated target launch window around 10 December 2026 from LC-39A [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. SpaceX has not officially confirmed the 10 December target date, and prior Starship flight schedules have repeatedly experienced slips [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Only 77 days remain until the 31 December 2026 deadline, leaving virtually no margin if the debut is delayed by even three weeks [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. All recent press reports regarding readiness are tier 4 sources and lack corroboration from official regulatory filings or SpaceX confirmation [tier 4].
- What would move this number most. Whether SpaceX receives FAA launch license modifications and completes integrated testing (wet dress rehearsal and static fire) at LC-39A before December.
2026-10-14 14:17 21% 7 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. FAA planning material points to a target launch around 10 December 2026 (tier 1)
- What pushes it down. SpaceX has not confirmed any date and Starship schedules have repeatedly slipped (tier 1)
- What pushes it down. Tier‑4 articles only note preparations without firm dates, which are weak signals
- What would move this number most. Whether SpaceX will confirm a launch date before the FAA’s tentative 10 Dec window