Will NIST publish the initial draft of FIPS 206 (FN-DSA / Falcon) before 31 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
55%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if an initial public draft of FIPS 206 appears on csrc.nist.gov before the deadline.
Verified starting state
As of 20 July 2026, FIPS 206 is still in development, with no public draft and no announced date, while FIPS 203, 204 and 205 have been final since August 2024. The draft has been described as close since 2025, but Falcon's floating-point Gaussian sampling raises specification difficulties.
What pushes it up
- NIST has finalized the first three PQC standards (FIPS 203, 204, 205), which likely frees up internal resources to focus on the remaining standards like FIPS 206 [1]
- The draft has been described as 'close' to completion since 2025, suggesting that the core specification work is in its final stages [1]
What pushes it down
- Falcon's floating-point Gaussian sampling presents significant specification and implementation difficulties that have already caused years of delay [1]
- There has been no mention of FIPS 206 or Falcon in NIST's official news updates as of October 2026, suggesting a draft is not imminent in the very short term [1]
- The draft has already missed the timeline of the other initial PQC standards by over two years, indicating that the technical hurdles are persistent [1]
What would move this number most
Whether NIST has successfully resolved the technical difficulties regarding the specification of Falcon's Gaussian sampling to a level suitable for a FIPS draft.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 50% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 55 · 55 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-09 13:19 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Probability history
2026-10-09 13:19 55% 3 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. NIST has finalized the first three PQC standards (FIPS 203, 204, 205), which likely frees up internal resources to focus on the remaining standards like FIPS 206 [1]
- What pushes it up. The draft has been described as 'close' to completion since 2025, suggesting that the core specification work is in its final stages [1]
- What pushes it down. Falcon's floating-point Gaussian sampling presents significant specification and implementation difficulties that have already caused years of delay [1]
- What pushes it down. There has been no mention of FIPS 206 or Falcon in NIST's official news updates as of October 2026, suggesting a draft is not imminent in the very short term [1]
- What pushes it down. The draft has already missed the timeline of the other initial PQC standards by over two years, indicating that the technical hurdles are persistent [1]
- What would move this number most. Whether NIST has successfully resolved the technical difficulties regarding the specification of Falcon's Gaussian sampling to a level suitable for a FIPS draft.
2026-10-07 09:17 24% 2 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. The draft has been described as close since 2025, indicating progress toward a release [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. As of 20 July 2026 no public draft exists and no release date has been announced, suggesting delays [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. Falcon’s floating‑point Gaussian sampling raises specification difficulties, which could postpone publication [tier 1]
- What would move this number most. Whether NIST can resolve the technical specification challenges and set a concrete release schedule before March 2027
2026-09-21 17:51 62% 1 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).